Why Trump won’t win the Presidency

Tea Party vs GOP

Trump has created two Republican parties. 

WARNING: Political post to follow!

Today is the day I participate in the primaries in South Carolina. I’m headed out the door to cast a ballot for Bernie Sanders because, frankly, shit has got to change in this country, and he’s the only one in the race who’s proposing the kind of radical ideas that are only radical because they make so much damn sense.  We’ve gotten to the point in America where the right thing to do sounds like the crazy thing to do, and that is sad.

Two thoughts on Trump before I go:

  1. Trump will be in the General Election. It doesn’t matter if he wins the Republican Primary or not. He’s so far down the rabbit hole at this point, his ego won’t let him turn back. He’s on such a Primary high that he’s going to look at any reversal of fortune as dirty tricks by the GOP establishment, and he’s going to launch an independent run if they deny him the nomination. So, like it or not, Donald Trump will be on the ballet in November, one way or another.
  2. Trump will not win the General Election, even in a one-on-one scenario. There’s a lot of panic among Democrats and moderate Republicans alike that if he wins the GOP Primary he’ll win the presidency. It’s not going to happen. Trump can’t beat either Hillary or Bernie for one simple reason. He needs to dramatically diversify his base. Right now he’s the choice of the 35% of white ultra-Conservatives. He’s the devil to about 80% of Latinos and African Americans, which is crucial because you can’t win the White House without minority support. Trump doesn’t have the ability to turn those numbers around. I have no doubt that he’s going to start softening his message little by little. You can see the gears turning in his head. He did a trial run with his half-hearted defense of Planned Parenthood in the last two debates. He’ll slowly start to shift his stance on his most divisive statements, but he’s gone so far to the right, he can’t make up that ground. He won’t lose the support he has now because those people don’t really care what he says. He’s Trump. He’s just not going to make any significant gains after the Primaries.

Believe it or not, Trump has done some good in this election. He’s demonstrated that the GOP needs to reevaluate its current trajectory as a party. Republican’s have to decide between extreme Conservatism and the Constitution because you can’t have both.  Trump wants to strip freedoms away from every demographic that doesn’t look or think like him, and he only has support from one group, those that look and think like him and call themselves Conservatives. Trump essentially is about to do to Conservatives what he did to the USFL. If you’re not familiar with the USFL, that’s my point. Trump joined it and then killed it to placate his ego.   Trump has joined the Tea Party movement, and he’s killing it to placate his ego. For that, he has my thanks. Assholes aren’t pretty, but they serve a purpose.

BTW, there’s only one way I’m wrong about this. If you don’t vote, we are all screwed. VOTE!

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