What do you do when you’re trying to take a new author photo, and your dog jumps in your lap at the last second and shows you how it’s done like a boss?
Have I lost my mind? Nikki Haley, governor of South Carolina and GOP superstar, isn’t even running for the Republican nomination. But I submit to you that there is a chance she could actually end up being the nominee selected at this year’s GOP convention. How?
A lot of things have to fall into place, but it is a real possibility. There is a better than good chance that we are moving towards a brokered convention on the Republican side of the coin. That means that none of the current candidates will have the required number of committed delegates to win the nomination. In this case, you go through a series of floor votes to choose the nominee. The first vote will of course be cast as the delegates are committed, as required by the rules, but after that, the process gets much more complicated. Delegates’ commitments vary by state, but the bottom line is the candidates up for vote for the first vote don’t have to be the only candidates considered for subsequent votes. Here’s the rule to keep in mind should there be a brokered convention (Source is Washington Post):
The RNC’s Rule 40 establishes the rules to actually be eligible to be nominated. To do so, candidates have to present signatures of support from the majority of delegates from eight or more states. In other words, the most candidates that could be considered eligible for the nomination is six (six times eight being 48 and there being 50 states). The fewest candidates that could be considered eligible for the nomination is . . . zero.
Frankly, the problem for the GOP is Ted Cruz. He will not go away quietly, and they will need him to in order to rally support behind Marco Rubio. If Rubio is the nominee, there’s is no room for Cruz anywhere on the ticket. It just doesn’t make sense. My guess is there will be many, many, many votes with no nominee receiving the required number of delegates. That’s when dark horse candidates will start making a move.
Yesterday, we saw Mitt Romney give a speech that ostensibly looked as if he was attacking Trump to save the party, and I’m sure that was part of his motivation, but you notice he didn’t endorse his candidate, Marco Rubio. He encouraged voters to cast ballots for every candidate but Trump. Why? So, he could walk into a brokered convention and look for a spot where he can have his people move him in as a nominee.
You can bet that a case will be made for Nikki Haley during the backroom dealings that will occur after the first vote is cast. She’s young. She’s got conservative credentials, while making moderate moves at times as governor. She’s got executive experience. She has positive national exposure. She doesn’t have DC political stank on her. And if the current Democrat frontrunner wins the nomination, Haley nullifies the “I’m with Her” campaign strategy. In my view, she’s the one candidate that will bring the party together and give them a much needed reboot after this horrendous GOP primary season. Ugly isn’t an ugly enough word for what we’ve witnessed so far.
Her one hitch is that she will not have the racist vote. They have vowed to make her pay for removing the Confederate flag from the state capital in Columbia. Trump has the racist vote locked up. You won’t be able to pry their support for the orange wonder from their cold, white hands no matter what. Plus, they’re racist. Who gives a shit what they think? But against Hillary, Haley gets Dem crossover to make up for that lost support. Against Bernie, not so much.
Of course, my vote will still go to Bernie, even if I have to write him in. Unfortunately, I live in a state where my vote doesn’t matter in national politics. Stupid Electoral College. I don’t like or dislike Haley. I don’t support her politically, but she did a wonderful job of dealing with the Emanuel Nine crisis and the removal of the Confederate flag. That being said, she will never earn my vote because of her views on the economy, military, education, environment, Second Amendment, etc. That’s precisely what makes her the perfect Republican.